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Posts Tagged ‘Predictions’

Decline of War (smiley face emoticon).

In Sonny's Journal on November 24, 2012 at 9:26 am

-  On Thanksgiving I wrote quite a long piece about the infamous comic strip “Huxley was right; Orwell was wrong”.  It very poorly tied the idea that Huxley was right to Black Friday now spilling over into Thanksgiving now, the day of the year we’re supposed to be thankful for what we have.  The only day of the year in this country where we aren’t supposed to be consumers.  It also compared and contrasted 21st Century living to what Brave New World and 1984 predicted would happen to our societies.  I wrote it, edited it, and published it.  For some reason the published version wiped about 3/4 of the thing clean.  Probably a good thing as it was terribly written.

-  The Atlantic: “With 35MM Film Dead, Will Classic Movies Ever Look The Same Again?“.  It’s a depressing question with probably a more depressing answer.

“In June, director Martin Scorsese tried to show his 1993 film The Age of Innocence at the Museum of the Moving Image in Queens. Thelma Schoonmaker, Scorsese’s editor for the past 40 years and a three-time Oscar winner, called Grover Crisp, the senior VP of asset management at Sony, for a 35mm print. But Sony not only didn’t have a print, it couldn’t even make one.

“He told me that they can’t print it anymore because Technicolor in Los Angeles no longer prints film,” Schoonmaker recalled. “Which means a film we made 20 years ago can no longer be printed, unless we move it to another lab—one of the few labs still making prints.”

-  A swath of Nordic countries (all of them?) are telling Facebook to stop unsolicited advertising of users in their countries or face legal action.  Good for them.  Not only did they cite the current EU on “privacy and electronic communication” in their threat, they also are looking into amending the law to uniquely tackle the topic.  “It is prohibited to send electronic advertisements to consumers who haven’t given their consent, either by email or SMS… We think that some of the advertising that Facebook calls ‘sponsored stories’ is beginning to look like unsolicited electronic messages.”

-  The Independent: “The Future of War Is Looking Bleak“.  What a spectacular title for a news article!  Now we’re talking!  Havard Hegre, a professor  at the University of Oslo, developed a model for predicting future events and trends on a global scale this past year, his work has just been published.  In it Hegre discovered that the amount of “wars” (defined as a conflict between countries in which at least 25 people die) has dropped dramatically in recent history, and the extended model shows a continuation of decline in the next 40 years.  “War has become less acceptable,” Hegre said,  “just like duelling, torture and the death penalty.”

-  Sonny

2013′s Secret War.

In Sonny's Journal on November 13, 2012 at 9:22 am

-  I’ve been getting really into a remix project lately, and will likely come very close to finishing on my days off work this week.  Seems like lately I keep having the same crisis: during instrumental breaks do I go batshit crazy with a guitar or with a turntable.  Obviously this depends on the song, but it’s still hard to be clairvoyant and know which one will work better.  So typically I will just record both and compare and contrast.  First World Producer Problems.

-  I think I’ve posted Ulises Farinas’ art here before, but it’s well worth a second mention:

Wired has a good article about how patents actually shackle innovation, not encourage it.  As is evidenced by the Apple v. Samsung lawsuits of the past year.  It’s a long article, but very enlightening.

The past three decades of wanton patent-granting have created a disastrous environment for innovation. Today it’s practically impossible to build anything without violating a patent of some kind—and risking a multimillion-dollar lawsuit for your troubles. Once intended to protect lone inventors, patents now form a kind of shadow tech industry, in which billions of dollars are spent on amassing huge portfolios. (A recent New York Times article noted that Apple and Google, companies that define themselves by innovation, now invest more in patent acquisition and defense than in research and development.)

Why are companies spending so much money on patents? First, as protection. “Patents are like bullets,” law professor Chien says. “They’re cheap to acquire but can cause a lot of damage.” But if you have your own bullets, would-be assassins are less likely to target you. That’s the thinking behind RPX (Rational Patent Exchange), whose clients include Google, Microsoft, and IBM. RPX amasses patents, it says, to keep them out of the hands of lawsuit-happy competitors, and it vows not to sue anyone over them.

-  I’m a massive proponent for not going to war with Iran.  The problem with my viewpoint is we kinda already are at war with Iran.  It’s just a sophisticated war, a secret war.

The dramatic spike in suspected Iranian cyber attacks this year also has some in the U.S. distinctly worried. While direct denial of service attacks on U.S. banks – widely seen as retaliation for US sanctions and attempts to freeze Iran from the international financial system – were seen relatively simplistic, attacks on US allies in the Gulf were more complex.

The most worrying, experts say, were those on Saudi oil firm Aramco and Qatari gas export facilities. Last month, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta described the Saudi attack as the most sophisticated yet launched on a private company, effectively destroying tens of thousands of computers – although he stopped short of blaming Tehran directly.

-  And finally, Futurist Magazine Unviels Its Predictions for 2013 and Beyond.

-S.W.

 

Ghosts Of Mars.

In Links on January 5, 2012 at 1:57 pm

Label Conscious: The Ghosts Of Def Jam’s Past.

In 1995, the head-trauma wing at a nursing home in Bensonhurst began acquiring the lost memories of Def Jam’s first rapper. Terry Keaton, a new patient at Haym Salomon hospital, had emerged from a coma unaware that he was T La Rock. Or that T La Rock had a hit in 1984 called “It’s Yours.” What was known is that the history of T La Rock — and perhaps the time of his life — had been purged from Terry Keaton’s mind with a blunt instrument.

The assailant was never caught, and Keaton spent much of his rehab listening to “It’s Yours,” recollecting lines that the rest of the hip-hop world had been quoting for the past decade. Though “It’s Yours” wasn’t exactly targeting the Yiddish-speaking Russian-granny demographic, this Def Jam moment essentially became theirs: a new memory that required an additional memory for all that excess bass. Listening to an 808 drum machine certainly beat not recognizing your loved ones.”

-  And speaking of ghosts and hip-hop: one of those albums I was referring to yesterday is the oft-delayed Ghostface & DOOM record “Swift & Changeable“.  Since first getting into Wu-Tang, Ghostface quickly rose to the top of those 9 rappers for me personally.  I’m a big fan.

And since we’re on the subject, if you do not already have WUGAZI on your computer I’d suggest getting it.  It’s free, and awesome.  Now here’s more links:

Third Lunar Mineral — Tranquillityite — Found In Western Australia.

Birger Rasmussen, paleontologist with Curtin University in Perth, and colleagues have found natural samples in several sites in Western Australia, and as they describe in their paper published in Geology, it appears likely the is more common here on our home planet than anyone might have surmised.

The mineral has been found in six sites in all, in various remote spots in Western Australia, and occurs in very small amounts. The samples found were actually about the width of a human hair and just microns in length, and that’s part of the reason why it’s taken so long for those that study rocks to find such samples here on . Another reason is that tranquillityite is comparatively delicate and tends to break down when exposed to normal surface climatic events such as heat, rain and wind.

-  A natural hangover cure?  For real?

Warren Ellis: Five Predictions About The Immediate Future Of Comics.  Among them:  indie creators being offered deals to do their own bidding via digital storefronts/apps, more self-publishing/direct to book publishers, several of the DC staff will begin exiting the company due to the constant shifting of… everything.

Our Tools Don’t Make Us Who We Are; We Make Tools Because Of Who We Are.

Cyberculture legend RU Sirius, editor at the Acceler8or webzine, interviewed Joel Garreau and myself about the Prevail project. (Short summary for those who missed the earlier post: Prevail is an Arizona State University-sponsored non-profit organization looking to build collaborative knowledge about transformative technologies and culture.) In a series of back-and-forth email among the three of us, we discussed everything from the logic of transhumanism to the power of the Occupy movement.

-  And:  Should We Terraform Mars?

-Sonny

Teabagging: A Bostonian’s Perspective.

In Sonny's Thoughts on April 17, 2009 at 8:30 am

- Probably going to upload Blackout, part III of my Russian “powers” series, today sometime.  If not – tomorrow for sure.

- There’s an awesome T-Shirt website called Last Exit To Nowhere which specializes in obscure – some more than others – movie references.  Typically they come in the form of a company or organization featured in the film.  Such as: “Tyrell Corporation” (Blade Runner), or “Kobayashi Porcelain” (The Usual Suspects).

- Instead of only making Frat House style jokes about the latest Conservative obsession, “teabagging”, the Bostonist wonders exactly what right-wing protesters want, if it would help/hurt the economy, and how paper thin their connection to the Boston Tea Party actually is.  Jesus, what’s next?  Joe the Plumber organizing Ohio peers to protest under the title: “The Cleveland Steamers“??

- Big news in terms of Internet Piracy in the post “Napster” age:  the original founders of perhaps the most famous P2P file sharing (torrents) network, The Pirate Bay, have been sentenced to 4.5 million dollars in damage payments and a year in jail a piece.  They’re likely to challenge the ruling, however.

- Too much chatty-chatty, not enough perty-perty lately.  I’ll also probably put up some art, I’m thinking Krasner (people seem to like that), soon.

-Sonny

A Long Time Coming.

In Sonny's Thoughts on October 7, 2008 at 12:20 pm

I’m no Nostradamus.  I’m not trying to say “I told ya’ll so” either.  But I was driving in my little Green Ford Ranger today listening to some local Talk Radio.  The show I was listening to is fairly legit: balanced, honest, and full of common sense.  But when the host (who I actually like quite a bit) started saying, “I’m gonna go out on a limb here and be one of the first… this country is changing.  This is the end of an era.  What will we look like in 5-10 years?”, I nearly barrel rolled through the rain, off the wet road, into the ditch.  YOU’RE gonna be the FIRST, eh?  Wow.  That’s something.  But check this out: over a year ago this awesome dude named Mark started a topic on the H Board about the Canadian Dollar finally overtaking the American Dollar.  This is how I responded in the summer of 2007:

Canadian Dollar: 1/U.S. Dollar
British Pound: 2/U.S. Dollar
The Euro: 1.4/U.S. Dollar
Australian Dollar: .86/U.S. Dollar
Swiss Franc: .85/U.S. Dollar

This is it.  The end is near.  We hit our peak.  This is only the beginning of the downslope.  Give it another couple of decades, and the U.S. will NOT be the strongest single nation in the world: economically or politically.  And I can’t wait.

Now, I’m not alone on this.  There are many other people like me who’ve seen all this shit coming for a LONG time.  Almost a year prior to this (above), I predicted the end of American Global Domination in other forms as well.  And let me tell ya, Economics are only the BEGINNING.  This will spill into Pop Culture, World Politics, Consumption, Production, Social Trends, and more.  As Alan Moore’s Watchmen once put it: “The End is nigh”.  As Danny Boyle’s 28 Days Later put it: “The end is fucking nigh”. The empire is falling, folks.  It was bound to happen.  It won’t be so bad though.  In fact, it might make THIS AMERICAN LIFE better, easier, more comfortable, less pressurized.  Give it about 20 more years.  I’m telling you.

-Sonny

Pop Punk Margaret Thatchers.

In Sonny's Thoughts on October 4, 2008 at 10:23 pm

I visited a smallish chain-hotel earlier this evening which I visit often and with ease.  This hotel sits right next to a local music venue.  This venue does nothing but suck balls.  NO tap beer whatsoever.  NO taking drinks into bathrooms.  Foam machines adorn the ceilings.  The floor spans a good 40 cubic feet too far for its own good.  The stage is obscenely large, and lit excessively.  It smells like date-rape.  The bartenders/bouncers all wear matching golf shirts.  Security take themselves way too seriously.  I could go on and on.  In fact, maybe someday I’ll compile a list of everything that is wrong with this music venue.  So there was a show going on there tonight.  So naturally, many of the goers were seizing the rooms at this very close hotel.  It always happens when a relatively large show comes through.

No biggie, right?  That’s what I thought.  Well when I arrived at the hotel there were about 10-15 cars in the little drive-up/luggage- drop off area out front; I’m already annoyed.  Not only this, but there are a HUGE number of kids (mostly) just milling around the cars and the entrance.  Hold up: I should mention something about the bands.  Christian Pop Punk, to be blunt about it.  I have connections to one of the members in one of the bands.  He’s a really cool guy, actually; at least one of his bandmates, however, is NOT.  God bless ‘em though.  They travel around the country, and world, playing music for large crowds all while getting paid a pretty penny; but I don’t like the music.  At all.  I don’t even like Pop Punk to begin with.  Throw in Jesus and that opens a whole new can of beans.  What would Jesus listen to?  Umm… seriously- Jesus is probably a MASSIVE Grateful Dead fan.  Not a “dead-head”, I heard he isn’t that hardcore.  Just a big fan.  Oh, and he hates Creed.

Now the average age of human whom attend these shows is probably 16-17ish.  Maybe younger.  As I approached this hotel entrance I noticed the types, slowly swarming like zombies to a shopping mall.  “Urrrgh” translates into “bro” (I heard the term “bro” at least 34 times).  “Raarrrghhhhnnnn” to “Yeah, I just got this shirt”.  And little spurts of “Mm”, “Zzkt”, “Erhh”, and “Rr” to any different vocalization of Internet Slang.  I’m sensing that “Rr” could equal “LOL”.  [Need another beer]  One gobbles up intestines, the other quickly now-then-gone Pop Culture phenomenons.  As I watched them, I couldn’t help but feel similarly inside as I did about a month ago.

When “Maverick” (no not Tom Cruise’s character from Top Gun; what’s with the ONLY black character having the call-sign of “Sunset”??  Holy passive racism Jerry Bruckheimer) and company came into my semi-hometown of St. Paul to piss themselves over Romney and Guiliani mocking voluntary service, and this woman who isn’t that hot, but hot for a politician I guess.  I’m still more of a Janet Reno kind of guy.  At the time my Mother was quite ill and in Intensive Care at a hospital smack dab between the Capital and the Xcel Energy Center (where the Convention took place).  I was going every single day to see her.  This mother fucking Convention made it so tough for me to go see my Mom.  The protesters didn’t help either.  Neither did the St. Paul police.  Yeah, I’m talking shiite about Republicans, Protesters, and Police all at the same time.  The point is that these Republicans who came to town acted like they weren’t at all out of their element (even though in their little beady Lobbyist eyes I could see they were; one guy I literally ran into recoiled with immediate apologies even though I purposefully clipped him).  But there they were, imposing themselves into the area.  Clamoring for attention of any kind.  Swarming like the Undead.

Earlier tonight this hit me like a ton of bricks.  Oh my galaxies: “Christian Pop Punk fans remind of young, skate-shoe wearing, Republicans”, I presented to myself with sheer astonishment.  These kids were asserting themselves the same way.  Begging for attention the same way.  Seeking the thumbs up from fellow music/political critics the same way.  But this is the strangest part here… I was thinking all this whilst walking to my vehicle when I saw in the mess of cars parked out front at LEAST two “W ’04″ bumper stickers.  Wow.  You can’t make this stuff up.

I got in my car and began trying to piece together what I just witnessed and thought.  What exactly is happening here socially and culturally? One easy comparison is the transition of the baby boomers/hippies to the Conservative base of today.  Culturally and politically (probably not socially), today’s environment for the youth is very similar to the late-60′s.  You’ve got a situation where sheer circumstance is pushing the youth to left, HARD.  The same thing happened in the late 60′s.  But what happened?  Well- it recoiled.  That extreme movement led to a counter movement as these baby boomers grew up.  Although, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan certainly helped (possibly the worst Liberal President and the best Conservative President in the recent history).  Will these kids who log onto MySpace daily take a turn right in their 30s and 40s to form the new brand of Social Conservatives?  Maybe.  As I thought about this, I realized that attendants of Christian Rock shows, no matter how young, probably believe in the same things socially as Hard Conservatives.  So this is very much so a possibility.  If anything, the bumper stickers say it all.  I don’t think the majority of youth will grow into Social Conservatism though.  If the President since the new millennium was in any way a good President, of course; but this has been one of the worst in our history, and that doesn’t bode well in terms of future conversions of youth to the Right Wing.  Besides, we all know that Christian Conservatism in politics is fucking dead (if not, then DYING)… and, oddly enough, God knows that’s a good thing.

Another title to another POST could be: “HIP-HOP JOHN STUART MILLS”.  I’m telling you, mark my words, just watch.

-Sonny

Steady Rain Trepidation: A Follow Up.

In Sonny's Journal on August 4, 2008 at 1:16 pm

A week or so ago the owner of a convenience store was locking up around 11. He turned to walk back to his car and go home, and FOUR men stood between him and his car. He never had a chance; they pounded him, stomped on him, put him in the hospital and took his day’s earnings. About a month ago, at a family amusement park, the father of a little girl ran into some trouble. A group of young men were taunting his 8-ish year old daughter, making sexual remarks, and one of them even slapped her on the butt. So he yelled at them, cussed them out, told them how pathetic they truly were. On his way out, the same group attacked him, and beat the piss out of him in front of his daughter. This in broad daylight. I’d say America is fucking dead. I’d say it’s a deep rooted societal dilemma we’re facing in this country right now; a result of American political impotency, failed public works (schools, infrastructure, etc), loss of jobs and houses, and general disillusionment, frustration, and distrust of the established order. But it isn’t. Not when a man on a bus in Canada gets his head taken off, with a goddamn hunter’s knife, in the same fucking week. Maybe it’s all those things I cited above (disillusionment, failed schools, etc), but on a GLOBAL scale. Could it be? Who knows. It’s a confusing, muddled, disorienting, frustrating, messy time right now. It breaks my heart.

-Sonny

Future Isolationism Possibilities.

In Sonny's Thoughts on July 19, 2008 at 2:50 pm

As much as they wouldn’t like to admit it, they hate this word, the Republican Party is changing; it’s changing more than the Democratic Party. We won’t see it really take a turn for another couple of Presidential elections, but the Christian-Conservative and Neo-Conservative movements are losing steam fast in the right-wing. Example: at the beginning of his term, President Bush tried to implement a Constitutional Amendment banning gay marriage. This, only a couple years ago, would never come close to being passed in 2008, much less in 2016. People are beginning to realize that they’re much larger issues to tackle than personal choice (laws against types of sex, for example).

Throughout the 90s, and Clinton’s tenure, these movements gained the momentum to take them into the 2000s with full force. With the exception of the Bosnia/Serbia conflict, large International paranoia seemed to be at a low (even during the Gulf War). This always results in a push towards personal morality and tastes. What happened during the prosperous 50s? Things were going, well… well. So people turned to their paranoia in the forms of gender identity, the red scare, nuclear holocaust, and worries about the ever growing counter/drug culture. The 90s, in a sense, led to the Neo-Conservative movement in this same way. A God-Send then came for them in the form of the scandal of the decade. With Clinton’s, and Dems’ and left-wingers’, days numbered, popularity shattered, this new form of Conservative was poised to take over a party, and infiltrate mainstream politics. And it did.

The early 2000s are chalked full of a plethora of wins for the movement. The robes draped over Lady Liberty, the Ten Commandments outside a courthouse, the ALMOST Constitutional Amendment banning gay marriage, etc. The Republicans gave in because, just like the Democrats, they want votes. Fast forward to 2008.

The Republican Party, and the Conservative movement, is divided. The remnants of Bible-thumping nutcases still lingers, albeit it is much much smaller than it was 5 years ago. Fiscal conservatives have become downright angry (as they should), and without a voice. Even though half the country (roughly) claims they’d vote for McCain right now, 70% of the country doesn’t like the current administration. As a result, the candidate of their choice panders to many different viewpoints and the whole spectrum of Conservatism: he’s worked across the aisle in the past so there’s your folks not far off of center, he claims to be fiscally responsible, he’s a military hero, yet he’s anti Gitmo, torture, etc., he is religious yet progressive in a way. McCain exemplifies where exactly the Party is at in 2008: unsure of himself, very patriotic, simple messages and language, and without a strong/overt political identity. There’s a reason why Brownback didn’t come close to winning, and a reason why Huckabee or Romney lost out. Huckabee and Brownback both are simply too far Evangelical and/or religious for this revolution in the party. Christ-Cons, as I said earlier, lost steam a long time ago. Romney has the fiscal-con thing going for himself, but he loses a large chunk of Republicans to a guy like Ron Paul who’s preaching an end to policing the world, bases and prisons in other countries, and continuously shipping money overseas out of the taxpayers pocket (Romney was very gung-ho on these types of issues).

If I had to money on it in Vegas, I’d bet on Obama winning the next election, but McCain does have a shot. Where I’m leading with this: regardless of who wins the next election, what will the Republican nominee look like 8-12 years from now? What will the Party look like 8-12 years from now? Another Republican dominance is coming, it’s inevitable. Like the economy always floating back and forth. With Neo/Christ-Cons very much so a thing of the past 10 years from now, history looking back at the Cheney/Bush/Rumsfeld Administration controversies, an ever declining American dollar and dominance, and the remaining financial scars of a war MUCH longer than most thought and a economic/market scare, this NEW Republican Party will look to one word: Isolationism.

We will see a push towards isolationism from not the entire Party, but a large chunk of it. The Neo-Cons took control from only a chunk at first as a result of the past 10 years of socio/political history, this could happen the same way. A movement built from the ground up. Crazy enough to inspire the same type of heads who want Creationist Museums and pragmatic enough to launch the middle to their feet. If a guy like Ron Paul can get a significant amount of the Party to sway onto his ideas, where would that lead? It’s the only way to go other than towards center. Isolationists. But Isolationism in the future has one gigantic enemy to dodge: Globalization. Could isolationism ever return into such a globalized world and world economy? It’s interesting. How would the rest of the world react? To answer that, we’d need to know how exactly the world will look in 10-15 years. Which is completely impossible when we look at how the world looked in the mid-90s, it was a totally different place. It is certain that new economies are emerging right now, as I type. India, China, Iran, Australia. And there are always those countries who will always have some sway in the world. Germany, France, Great Britain, etc.

Is American Isolationism possible in the next 15 years? I don’t know, it is a stretch… but if anyone has the ability to do it, it’s the Republicans. Then again, we could all be dead by then.

-Sonny

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